The NASCAR Cup playoff picture with just three races to go

Just three races remain in the regular season, and there are just three unclaimed spots inside the 16-driver playoff field. The NASCAR Cup Series will test its drivers at the Watkins Glen road course before heading to the Richmond short track and then the iconic Daytona superspeedway.

William Byron became just the fifth multi-time winner this year with his fuel-mileage victory at Iowa Speedway, so there are still 13 winners holding the 16 spots. The final three spots are held by Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher, but the battle for that final spot is getting much tighter.

Tyler Reddick +122pts

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing Toyota

Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images

Reddick does not want to see a new winner at Watkins Glen (unless it’s him), and if he gets his wish, then his position inside the playoffs is a near-certainty. He is 59 points clear of his closest competition, so just an average day and no new winners will be enough for him to breathe easy.

Alex Bowman +63pts

Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Bowman can feel somewhat better after Iowa as he put some much-needed distance between himself and the hot seat. He was just 11 points above Buescher entering the race, but left 40 points up. He’s definitely not out of the woods yet, especially if there are some new winners, but he’s in a better position now than one week ago. 

23 points between RFK Racing teammates for the final spot

Chris Buescher, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

Photo by: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images

Iowa was not a good race for Buescher, as he lost ground to Bowman while Preece made up a lot of ground. This leaves Buescher extremely vulnerable, as any new winners from below the cut-line will knock him into the red. And Preece, who was 42 points back entering Iowa, is now just 23 points behind. But there is some good news for Buescher with NASCAR heading to Watkins Glen this weekend, where he is the defending race winner. But if going back-to-back isn’t an option, then Buescher will have to focus on getting as many stage points as possible.

Drivers facing a must-win who we need to watch at The Glen

Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Kyle Busch is 73 points below the cut-line, and it is unlikely that he will be able to make up that kind of ground over the next three weeks. So, it’s basically a must-win situation for him and everyone else in the field. And with Watkins Glen being a road course, it presents a unique opportunity for some of these drivers, who may not be contenders elsewhere.

A.J. Allmendinger: Before SVG’s arrival, Allmendinger was looked at as one of the top road course racers in the sport, and for good reason. He has three Cup wins, all at different road courses, including a victory at Watkins Glen. He’s also driving the car that nearly won this race one year ago with SVG behind the wheel, so expect Allmendinger to be a contender.

Ty Gibbs: Gibbs has been truly impressive on road courses this year, and even had a shot at beating van Gisbergen in Mexico City before a poorly timed caution took him out of contention. His best finish of the year came at Chicago where he finished second, and JGR will be fully behind Gibbs as he is the only driver within the organization who is not yet locked into the playoffs.

Michael McDowell: McDowell is another road course ace who had a chance to challenge SVG at Chicago before some mid-race mechanical gremlins. He won at the Indianapolis Road Course in 2021, and he’ll get some extra laps this weekend in the Xfinity Series race. And this year, his only top-five finishes have come at road and street courses, so keep an eye on the No. 71.

Daniel Suarez: Suarez is in a unique position. Both of his teammates are already locked into the playoffs, but he is set to part ways with Trackhouse at the end of the year. And with no ride lined up for 2026, the pressure for him goes far beyond the playoffs. He really needs to return to Victory Lane, and while we know the Trackhouse cars are capable of winning at road courses … and so is Suarez. His first career Cup win came at Sonoma, and he even won the Xfinity race in Mexico City earlier this year. 

Carson Hocevar: Hocevar is a true wildcard, as we don’t really know what to expect to see out of him this weekend. He finished third at Watkins Glen last year, but he has finished outside the top 30 in the last three road and street course races. He also has a growing list of enemies, and road courses present a great opportunity for low-risk payback, but if he can avoid the drama, he could be a contender on Sunday.