Two to go: Breaking down the battle to make the NASCAR Cup playoffs

Just two races remain in the regular season for the NASCAR Cup Series, and Tyler Reddick took a big step in securing his place in the postseason on points alone. With Shane van Gisbergen’s fourth win of the 2025 season, Reddick is now in a strong position points-wise as it prevented anyone new from capturing the checkered flag.

But mathematically speaking, there are still three unclaimed spots in the 16-driver playoff grid as the Cup Series races into Richmond Raceway, before ending the regular season at Daytona International Speedway.

Here’s a look at where everything stands after Watkins Glen:

Tyler Reddick +117pts

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing Toyota

Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images

Reddick lost five points to the cut-line at The Glen, but he essentially maintained his margin over Alex Bowman, only losing two points to the No. 48. That is crucial as there are 57 points between them. If he can keep that gap at Richmond, then he will clinch a spot in the playoffs even with a new winner. Should there be a repeat winner, then he will easily clinch a spot. Either way, 23XI Racing has to feel very good about their chances at this point.

Alex Bowman +60pts

Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Bowman certainly doesn’t want to see any surprise winners at Richmond. He has a comfortable margin over the cut line, but the gap he should be worried about is the one to Chris Buescher and the bubble, which is just 26 points. No one wants to be 16th entering Daytona, as that driver will be the one eliminated should any of the drivers below the cut-line win at the unpredictable superspeedway. If there is a new winner at Richmond, it’s unlikely Bowman will gain enough points on Buescher to clinch a spot, so the best-case scenario for him (besides winning himself) is to keep Buescher at bay and hope for a repeat winner. 

Chris Buescher +34 points

Chris Buescher, RFK Racing Ford

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Watkins Glen was exactly what Buescher needed, winning a stage and finishing third in a fantastic showing for the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford. He gained eleven points on the cut-line, where his teammate sits. It’s still a very uncomfortable seat, being the bubble driver, so his focus should be on bridging the gap to Bowman and tossing the No. 48 onto the bubble before Daytona arrives. If he doesn’t move from his current spot, then Buescher has to worry about over half of the drivers in the field who could win at Daytona and knocking him out.

Ryan Preece -34pts

Ryan Preece, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images

Preece had a decent run at The Glen, but it still wasn’t enough. Losing those eleven points puts him in a more desperate situation, as the path to the playoffs on points alone begins to dim. The RFK Racing driver has never won in his previous 211 Cup starts, but that may be exactly what he needs to do over the next two weeks. 

The drivers facing a must-win at Richmond

Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

There are 19 drivers with one goal over the next two weeks, and that’s win or nothing. Among them is defending Richmond winner Austin Dillon, who sits 28th in the standings. He didn’t get into the playoffs via that last win, due to the shocking lengths he went to in order to ensure he wasn’t beaten (blatantly wrecking both Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin), but still, the No. 3 was extremely fast during that race.

If they bring similar speed this weekend, it could be a big opportunity for Dillon, or his teammate Kyle Busch, as both drivers needs a win to make the playoffs. 

Another driver to watch is Daniel Suarez, who led 93 laps at Richmond last year. Trackhouse also earned a double top ten result in that race, and they have all the momentum after SVG’s latest triumph. 

Brad Keselowski had great speed at the most recent short track race at Iowa, and could be a contender again at Richmond. However, a win for Brad means his teammate will be booted from the playoff bubble.

Front Row Motorsports and Spire Motorsports are both three-car teams, but all of their drivers are in a must-win situation. Unless they shock the world this weekend, their only shot for any of their drivers to make it will be in the finale at Daytona.

Other multi-car teams with zero drivers currently in the playoffs include Kaulig Racing and Legacy Motor Club, but the biggest team in a must-win situation has to be the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Ty Gibbs is still winless after three years in the Cup Series, and time is running out for him to join his teammates in the championship hunt.